Mariners' Prospect Track Record Lags Behind MLB Average, Study Shows

A recent analysis of top-five prospects from 2007 to 2019 reveals that the Seattle Mariners' track record with high-end talent is worse than the league average. While teams typically see about two out of every five top prospects succeed, the Mariners have converted only one in five. The study, which measured success by FanGraphs WAR over a player’s first six years of team control, highlights a stark contrast between Seattle and the broader MLB trend.

The sample included around 50 players who ranked in the top five of Baseball America’s preseason prospect rankings. Of those, just 40 percent were deemed successful by the WAR metric. That means roughly 60 percent of the most heralded prospects in the league failed to deliver at the expected level. The Mariners' performance, however, was even more discouraging.

Among the team’s top drafted or acquired hitting prospects, only Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez lived up to their potential. Players like Dustin Ackley, Jarred Kelenic, and Jesus Montero were considered high-end talents but never reached their projected ceilings. Ackley, for instance, was never ranked higher than 11th in Baseball America’s top 100, which excluded him from the study.

Montero, a top-five pick in 2007, was included in the sample and fared poorly by the WAR standard. His six-year WAR of 0.2 is emblematic of the type of underperformance that has plagued the Mariners’ prospect pipeline. Kelenic, who was ranked fourth in 2021, was not part of the study due to its cutoff year.

The study also found that players who reached the majors quickly were not necessarily more successful. Some of the fastest risers, like Byron Buxton, struggled to sustain impact production. Buxton, who is reportedly willing to accept a trade, has a six-year WAR of 10.9 but has yet to fully live up to his elite prospect status.

Meanwhile, the Rangers are dealing with their own issues, particularly on offense. Their struggles have led to speculation about potential moves involving players like CJ Abrams, who is being eyed by multiple teams. With the trade deadline approaching, teams will weigh their options carefully.

The Mariners' poor track record with top prospects is not just a matter of bad luck. It reflects a systemic issue with how the team has developed and utilized young talent. As the 2024 season unfolds, Seattle must decide whether to double down on its rebuilding plan or make midseason adjustments to improve its chances.