Tigers Weigh Skubal’s Future as Trade Deadline Looms

The Detroit Tigers are at a crossroads with ace pitcher Tarik Skubal, as speculation mounts about a potential blockbuster trade before the July 30 deadline. With the team sitting at 21-34 and a 16.5% playoff chance, the pressure is mounting on Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris to decide whether to keep Skubal for a possible playoff run or trade him for top-tier talent. Skubal is expected to return in June after undergoing a groundbreaking NanoNeedle procedure to remove a loose body in his elbow, giving the Tigers roughly nine starts before the deadline.

The Tigers have lost 17 of their last 20 games but still hold a sliver of hope in a weak AL, where a .500 record could land them a Wild Card spot. Detroit has 58 games left and will play 13 of their next 17 at home, which could help spark a late-season surge. Skubal’s return could be a major factor in that push, especially if the Tigers are within striking distance of a playoff berth by late July.

Detroit’s decision on Skubal isn’t binary. Holding onto him for a final playoff push is a viable option if the Tigers remain in contention. But trading him could yield a package of prospects and diversify the team’s risk. Skubal is projected to earn more than $50 million in free agency next winter, so the Tigers would receive a sandwich compensatory draft pick if he walks, likely in the #29-33 range.

A 20-year look at the #30 pick shows mixed results. While the draft slot has produced players like Cole Ragans and Anthony Volpe, it has also yielded busts about two-thirds of the time. Trading for multiple high-upside prospects in return for Skubal would offer more certainty than a single draft pick.

The real question is whether any team would part with a top-of-system asset for just a few months of Skubal. The Yankees, Dodgers, and Angels have the resources and need for an impact starter, but they’re unlikely to overpay for a rental. The Tigers must be ready for all scenarios, sell, hold, or even buy, depending on how July unfolds.

Skubal’s health and performance after his return will be key. If he can pitch like the 6-WAR ace he was in 2023, the Tigers could make a late playoff run. If not, a trade becomes more likely. Harris has until late July to decide, and the Tigers’ next 13 games at home begin Friday against the White Sox.