Pochettino and the USMNT: What Success Looks Like in the 2026 World Cup

The United States Men’s National Team (USMNT) enters the 2026 World Cup with high expectations and a coach in Mauricio Pochettino who is expected to deliver results. As co-hosts of the tournament, the U.S. will be under intense scrutiny, and the question remains: how far must Pochettino take the team for the World Cup to be considered a success?

Pochettino, a respected figure in football, was hired to elevate the USMNT’s performance on the global stage. His tenure is expected to end after the tournament, adding pressure to produce a strong finish. The U.S. is ranked 16th by FIFA, sandwiched between Mexico and Uruguay, and 41st in Elo ratings. These figures suggest a Round of 16 finish could be a realistic target.

Historically, the U.S. has reached the quarterfinals only once in the modern era, in 2002. That team remains a benchmark for success. Comparing the U.S. to other host nations in recent World Cups provides a useful metric. South Korea (2002) reached the semifinals, Russia (2018) made the quarterfinals, and Japan (2002) reached the Round of 16. The average finish for host nations in the modern era is the quarterfinal stage.

However, the 2026 World Cup will be expanded to 48 teams, making the path more complex. The U.S. could face Germany, France, Argentina, or Portugal in the Round of 32, all of which are among the strongest teams in the competition. Advancing past the group stage will be the minimum acceptable result for a team co-hosting the tournament.

What constitutes success is subjective. A poor finish is easy to identify, but the line between “adequate” and “mediocre” depends on matchups and performance. As Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart once said in Jacobellis v. Ohio, “I know it when I see it.” The U.S. will be judged on whether it meets expectations and how it performs against top-tier opponents.

Pochettino’s legacy will be defined by one tournament. Will this generation of the USMNT enter the history books? The answer will come in June, and perhaps July.