MLBTR Projects 2026-27 Qualifying Offer At $23.1MM, Fifth Straight Year Of Increases

MLB Trade Rumors estimates the 2026-27 qualifying offer will be worth $23.1 million, a 4.9% increase from the current $22.025 million for the 2025-26 season. The official number is expected to be released in October. The offer is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the league and has risen each year for the past four seasons.

Teams can offer the one-year contract to eligible free agents who played the entire season with one club and have never received a QO before. The deadline to extend the offer is five days after the World Series. Players typically have 10 days to evaluate the market, though last year allowed 12 days. If a player rejects the offer and signs with another team, his former club receives a compensatory draft pick and the new club faces draft and international bonus penalties.

The QO has seen gradual increases over the past decade. The 2026-27 estimate would mark the fifth consecutive $1 million rise. The 4.9% jump is the largest in four years. The only bigger increases in the past 10 years occurred after slight declines, such as in 2016-17 and 2020-21.

Last year was unusual, with a 30.8% acceptance rate as four of 13 players, Gleyber Torres, Shota Imanaga, Trent Grisham and Brandon Woodruff, accepted the QO. The historical acceptance rate is just 9%. This year’s free agent class is expected to include many QO-eligible players, though some names, like Michael King, Bo Bichette and Corbin Burnes, may not qualify due to prior offers or opt-out decisions.

Players like Kevin Gausman, Sonny Gray and Nick Martinez have already been offered the QO in previous seasons. If any top free agent is traded this summer, they will be ineligible for a QO in 2026 because they must spend the full season with one team to qualify.

Teams will evaluate their top free agents carefully in the coming months. The QO remains a strategic tool for clubs to protect themselves from losing key players without significant return. As salaries continue to climb, the value of the QO will likely keep rising with them. The official 2026-27 figure will be set in October.